Crack the Bell

So what happened on Super Tuesday?

The short answer is, "Beats me."

• Obama won more states, but Clinton won decisively in the big states. 
  
• Obama took bellwether Missouri (barely), while Clinton won big in Teddy Kennedy's home state. 
  
• I've seen a couple of different comparisons of the popular vote - which pretty much means zero - that say Obama got an incredibly small margin. 
  
• Delegate counts are all over the board, so I won't even bother to try and figure it out.

Pundits are telling us now that the upcoming calendar - and certainly the money primary - now favor Obama.  But Hispanics and women are proving to be a rock solid base for Clinton, and she continues to hold an edge in superdelegates.

Even as Republicans appear to be closer to settling on a nominee than us, signs continue to point toward a Democratic advantage in the fall:

• Democratic turnout continues to climb at an amazing pace, easily trumping Republicans.  That "enthusiasm gap" is important.
  
• Nobody seems to really care all about the war right now, McCain's strong suit, and if the economy continues to dominate the discussion - and worsen - Clinton will be able to beat McCain over the head with it.
• Even though pundits love this whole "titanic battle for the soul of the Democratic Party" narrative, the Clinton/Obama contest has been far less vicious than the Republican fight.  Again, enthusiasm favors the Dems.  It's likely that voters of either Democratic candidate will still turn out in droves for the eventual winner; it's hard to see that happening on the Republican side.

As to the last point, however, things could easily take a turn for the worse. 

• Obama's speech last night - while still full of his themes of hope, inspiration and unity - was the first time he's drawn a stark contrast with Clinton in an election night speech. It's going to be increasingly necessary for the candidates to make those kinds of distinctions between themselves if somebody's going to break this deadlock.
• Going into the convention, if one of the candidates has most of the delegates won in primaries - but loses the nomination based on superdelegates - there could be massive turmoil that neither can recover from in the general.
• I just heard Tim Russert lay out the ultimate nightmare scenario - a convention fight on Clinton's behalf to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates. Imagine, Russert says, if that happens, and every African-American delegate in the building walks out.

So, what happened last night?

Beats me. 

 

Super Night for Obama?

If exit polls are to be believed, it may be a very good night for Barack Obama:

Obama: Alabama: Obama 60, Clinton 37... Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45... Connecticut: Obama 53, Clinton 45... Delaware: Obama 56, Clinton 42... Illinois: Obama 70, Clinton 30... Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 48... Missouri: Obama 50, Clinton 46... New Jersey: Obama 53, Clinton 47...

Clinton: Arkansas: Clinton 72, Obama 26... California: Clinton 50, Obama 47... New York: Clinton 56, Obama 43... Oklahoma: Clinton 61, Obama 31... Tennessee: Clinton 52, Obama 41...

Super Tuesday Predictions

In order to be a real blog, you have to make some predictions for Super Tuesday, so here are mine. 

I used polling data, the opinions of a bunch of other people, gut instinct and, mostly, completely random assumptions to come up with this list. 

• First, I gave any state with "New" in its name to Hillary, just because I wanted to
  
• Secondly, a candidate automatically wins the state where he or she spent most of their political lives - Illinois for Obama and Arkansas for Hillary
• Hillary gets Tennessee because "Did Tennessee what Arkansas"
  
• States with a long "o" in their names are generally assigned to Obama
• States that begin with "c" go for Clinton, except for Colorado, because it has three "o's" in addition to a long "o"
  
• AlaBAMA, oBAMA
• Obama gets American Samoa, because it sounds exotic, and Americans Abroad, because he went to that madrassa
• Hillary gets Missouri - even though it has an "o" in it - because it begins with "miss"
• Similarly, Obama gets Minnesota because of "minn" as well as the "o"
• I give Delaware to Obama because my wife was born there, and I felt like it
  
• Obama gets Georgia, because my parents drove through there yesterday on the way to Florida in their RV, and my mom told me she saw an Obama sign somewhere
  

That leaves us with:

Clinton: Arkansas, New York, New Jersey, New Mexico, Tennessee, Connecticut, Missouri

Obama: Alabama, American Samoa, Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Democrats Abroad, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Minnesota, Oklahoma, North Dakota

That leaves tossups in:

• Alaska - because Inuits have great affection for the Clintons, but there are, like 700 people between the age of 18-29 who could turn the tide for Obama
  
• California - You'd think Clinton would win it, because it starts with "c" and the only "o" isn't a long sound, but everybody else says it's a tossup, and I don't want to go too far out on a limb all by myself by picking a winner.  Anyway, if Hillary wins it by anything less that, say, 10 points, she really lost, see, because a couple of weeks ago she was leading by about 75, and also because they have all these Congressional districts and at the end of the day delegates are probably going to be assigned by playing "Rock, Paper, Scissors" sometime in June
  
• Massachusetts - because in a late breaking development, they've decided to forgo a primary and let the Kennedys split up into two teams and play touch football to decide a winner
  
• Utah - because it's Utah

Lame Super Bowl Analogy Alert: Barack Obama

In New Jersey last night:

"I have said repeatedly that this campaign is about bringing people together," said Obama, who had been pulling for the Patriots. "And for me to be able to bring a Patriots fan to the Meadowlands, the day after the Super Bowl, is like bringing the lion and the lamb together. We bridge all gaps and all divisions in this country."

And:

"Sometimes the underdog pulls it out. You can't always believe the pundits and prognosticators."

The Candidates on the Issues

Looking at my visitor stats, a lot of people are finding this site while looking for candidate stands on the issues.  The entry you're finding isn't really helpful, so here are some resources to help you figure out - as best you can - where the candidates stand on some of the big issues. Personally, I just vote on the basis of party label, gender and race, but if you, like, really want a candidate that, you know, maybe shares your convictions, use these sites.

• New York Times 
• 2Decide.com
• On the Issues

Politifact from the St. Petersburg Times is also a great way to see what half-truths, outright lies and the occassional fact are seeping into the candidate's statements.

Lame Super Bowl Analogy Alert: Mike Huckabee

I just heard Mike Huckabee on MSNBC refer to himself as the New York Giants.  Let the games begin.